TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. On Friday morning, May 13, CSK became the second team after MI to be officially knocked out of the playoffs race.
Except for three teams – GT which has qualified for the playoffs and MI and CSK (those who can’t)- the tournament is still open for the others. For some, the odds are more favorable while some might barely scrape through. Here is how the probabilities stand on the morning of May 13:
1) Despite the win vs CSK on Thursday, MI is out of the reckoning for a playoff spot.
2) Today’s loss means that CSK can also not qualify for the top four.
3) KKR’s chances of making the fourth spot remain at 7%, but the best it can hope for is tied third with four to six teams or a tied fourth position with two to five teams
4) DC’s chances of making it to the top four slots on points remain at 40.6% but they cannot top the points table
5) PBKS’ chances of a top-four finish have also remained at 26.6%, but like DC it can also no longer top the table
6) SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four spots on points remain at 23.4%% and it too cannot finish at the top of the points table after the league stage
7) RCB’s chances of making it to one of the top four slots also remain at 88.7%. At worst, they’ll finish sixth on points
8) RR has a 91.8% chance of finishing among the top four in terms of points. But they can still drop to as low as joint sixth if they lose their remaining games
9) LSG in its first IPL season is also certain to get to the top four slots on points. But it could lose out on the playoffs by ending up at 16 points in either a five-way tie for the second spot, a four-way tie for the third spot or a three-way tie for the fourth spot
10) GT, also in its first IPL season, has ensured qualification and can do no worse than a four-way tie for the top spot in which it ends up fourth on net run rate
11) In short, bet on LSG, RR and RCB joining GT in the playoffs, with PBKS and SRH having a relatively small chance of displacing RR or RCB in the playoffs race. Anything else would be a long shot.
How we calculate these probabilities: We looked at all 2,048 current possible combinations of results with 11 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 2,048 current possible result combinations, RR finishes first to fourth on points in 1,880 combinations. That translates to a 91.8% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.